I graded 18 dated AI predictions from the last two years against what actually happened. The scoreboard is brutal, and the one guy who scored well got nothing for it. In March 2025, Dario Amodei told the Council on Foreign Relations that AI would be writing 90% of code within three to six months, and essentially all of it within twelve. That twelve-month deadline passed in March. Almost nobody went back to check. That is the strange etiquette of AI forecasting. The predictions are loud, d...