Tech
How to tell an ad experiment is unwinnable before you run it
Most experiments that come back "no clear winner" were unwinnable on the day they launched. The data could not resolve an effect that size, and no amount of extra runtime was going to change that. You can find this out in about two minutes, before you spend anything, with one formula and a resampling pass over your own data.
Here is the check, in three steps.
Step 1. Compute the smallest lift your data can see
For a two-arm test on a conversion rate, the smallest lift detectab...
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