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Your Time-Series Validation Score Is Inflated, and Your Test Suite Will Never Tell You
Every machine learning engineer learns early that leakage inflates validation scores. We check for target leakage. We check for train-test contamination. We use time-based splits instead of random ones on temporal data.
Then we build a feature over a rolling window, evaluate the model, and quietly reintroduce a related problem that no leakage check is designed to catch.
It is not leakage. The trouble is a sample size you never actually had.
Where it comes from
Temporal mode...
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