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My trading system has a 73.5% win rate and loses money. Here is the diagnostic that found it.
I spent a few days auditing a live FX system I built, over 16 years of history. The result was negative in a way I did not expect, and the diagnostic that found it is general enough to be worth writing up — it applies to any parameter search, not just trading.
The setup
17 configurations, 4-hour entry bars, exits simulated on 1-hour bars, 2010-05-28 .. 2026-07-08 (16.1y), 7641 trades. Crucially I fed the unmodified production functions historical CSV instead of a live data feed...
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