This is being thrown around a lot, including the dreaded "10% chance by the end of this decade". Every conversation I have seen about this, mostly on twitter, not once have I seen anyone connecting the dots on concretely and plausibly how this might pan out. It is usually 1. Train powerful AI 2. ??? 3. Extinction I personally find it implausible, but some quite smart people have talked about it so I am also not dismissing it as pure fear-mongering. The reasons I do not think it is plausible: 1...