For the last three years, the defense tech story was: better sensors, better models, better decision-making software. Anduril, Shield AI, Palantir — all riding the idea that AI-native companies could out-think legacy primes like Lockheed and Raytheon. Funding backs this up — defense tech startups raised close to $50B in 2025, nearly double the year before, and 2026 has already topped that full-year pace. But the constraint shifting into 2026 isn't intelligence anymore. Recent conflicts have ...