Best-of-K eval selection bias: pick the highest-scoring config from K candidates on one eval set and that observed score is biased up. It reports the expected maximum of K noisy estimates, which beats the field mean whenever K exceeds one. The bias appears even when all K configs are truly equal, grows with K, and shrinks with n. Here is the version that bites you. Your bake-off ran a batch of prompts against one eval set, the top one came out ahead, and you shipped it. In production it does ...